Deal Analysis

How Vacancy Changes Rental Property Returns

Assuming 100% occupancy is the fastest way to make a weak deal look strong. Vacancy is a cost — model it like one.

Last reviewed: October 5, 2026 · 2 min read · 713 Metrics Editorial

Physical vs. economic vacancy

Physical vacancy is time the unit sits empty. Economic vacancy is all income you expected but didn't collect: empty days, concessions, unpaid rent, and below-market renewals. Economic vacancy is usually larger.

What turnover really costs

  • Lost rent between tenants
  • Make-ready: paint, cleaning, repairs
  • Leasing fees and marketing
  • Utilities carried while vacant
  • Your time or your manager's time

A single turnover can cost more than a month of rent once make-ready and leasing are included.

Vacancy sensitivity

Vacancy scenarios
VacancyEffective incomeNOIAnnual cash flowDSCR
0%$28,800$14,616−$3,3470.81
5%$27,360$13,176−$4,7870.73
8%$26,496$12,312−$5,6510.69
10%$25,920$11,736−$6,2270.65

Each percentage point of vacancy on $2,400 rent costs $288 a year — and in this example falls straight through to cash flow.

Choosing a vacancy assumption

There is no universally correct vacancy rate for Houston. Use evidence for the specific property type and area: days-on-market for comparable leases, the property's own history, and current rental-market reports from sources like the Houston Association of REALTORS — read with attention to geography, property type, and period.

Stress-Test a Deal

Raise vacancy in the Deal Generator's stress test and watch cash flow and DSCR respond.

Open the Deal Generator

Sources & Further Reading

  1. Houston Association of REALTORS — Market statistics and housing reports. www.har.com
  2. U.S. Census Bureau — American Community Survey data. data.census.gov
  3. Texas Legislature — Texas Property Code, Chapter 92 — Residential Tenancies. statutes.capitol.texas.gov/Docs/PR/htm/PR.92.htm

Sources accessed for review on October 5, 2026. Laws, rates, and programs change — confirm current details at the source.

713 Metrics provides educational and informational tools and content. Nothing on the platform constitutes financial, investment, tax, legal, lending, appraisal, brokerage, insurance, or real-estate advice. Users should independently verify information and consult appropriate licensed professionals.